I'm in Self-Quarantine for COVID 19

We have entered a state of self-quarantine (here and here). Are we overreacting?

During World War I, President Woodrow Wilson ordered the transport of soldiers infected with the Spanish Flu (here, here, and here) to Europe in support of this nation’s wartime efforts. Transport at the time was by close quarters troop ships which took the better part of a week to cross the Atlantic. Later, infected troops were ordered back to the U.S.—Kansas, in particular—where the soldiers were stationed.

In September 1918, the city of Philadelphia hosted a parade to celebrate the forthcoming end of WW I. It was reported 200,000 attended the parade, and within a week, over 45,000 Philadelphians were reportedly ill. Over 12,000 citizens of Philadelphia died of their illness.

Contemporary analysis suggests the Spanish Flu had its origins in northern China and spread to western Europe. How? WW I allies employed the services of 140,000 Chinese laborers to perform manual labor otherwise performed by the troops in the region. By “contracting out” these basic services, the allies made it possible to place more allied troops on the war front.

There are some other similarities between now and then. For example, President Wilson feared news reports outlining both the scale and threat posed by the Spanish Flu would unnecessarily create chaos and pandemonium here in the U.S. The less said about the matter, the better.  The Sedition Act of 1918 enshrined in law prohibitions of unfavorable news coverage. 

One of the unfortunates included President Trump’s paternal grandfather who perished from the Spanish Flu in short order.

Back to the question: Are we overreacting? Is self-quarantine justified?

We live in Las Vegas for all but the hot summer months. Las Vegas is not only a tourist destination it is also one of the world’s major convention and meeting centers. Las Vegas is not known as a manufacturing center. Its business is the service of the tourism and professional group meetings. It’s a face-to-face, high contact business.

In January of each year, Las Vegas hosts the Consumer Electronics Show which draws both a national and international crowd—especially from southeast Asia. And by January of each year, strains of influenza gain a strong foothold in the Las Vegas valley. There’s no proof whatsoever that CES 2020 in early January played a role in bringing the novel coronavirus, COVID 19, to the valley. Neither is there any evidence that the end of CES 2020 exported community transmission throughout the U.S. or elsewhere.

Reported clusters of COVID 19, like the one in Seattle, Washington, feature diverse communities, a significant high technology center, and travelers who shuttle back and forth to southeast Asia.

Now, I’m neither a virologist nor an epidemiologist. I’m not a public health researcher. In fact, I have no connection with the health industry writ large, except as a patient—more about that below. I am, however, a writer who’s always searching for novel crimes, conspiracy theories that may, or may not, prove true. It can be argued that writers of fiction do little to separate the basis for a crime, mystery, or thriller from the facts in service of a good and entertaining story.

In one of my recent works, If at First (here and here), I spin a thriller that crosses the current political landscape with organized crime and the Russian GRU’s use of the internet and Facebook to plausiblyinfluence the outcome of the 2016 presidential election. Often there’s no sinister outside influence trying to humble us. We do quite well all on our own. Our democratic republic is a lumbering beast that can get in its own way. And the quality of our political leadership is a barometer of the political and cultural health of our country. Even when we are motivated to do the right thing, it is only after we tried and failed at just about everything else.

So, I don’t see an outside conspiracy to starve our public health system of the resources necessary to identify and react to possible pandemic health threats. No one in political life enjoys bad news—unless it belongs to their opposition—and it is a natural proclivity to want to manage reportage of bad news while cheerleading our economy and the benefits produced by rising economic tides. Don’t be sad or worried. Look toward the positive. Be happy instead.

Nevertheless, it’s a fact that other countries developed and deployed tests to identify the spread of COVID 19 sooner than we did. Not by much, but enough perhaps. We don’t know today how and where COVID 19 entered the U.S. It might have been CES 2020. It might not. It could have been run of the mill international tourism travel. It might not. It might have been the business of international commerce. It might not. What matters today is the transmissibility of this pathogen and tracking community transmission now that it’s here. Without widespread testing and analysis, it will be difficult to assess either. And we seem to be at least weeks, if not months, from assessing transmissibility and (local) community transmission.

Until then, we work with the best information we have.

The World Health Organization (WHO) has reason to believe COVID 19 is highly transmissible and community transmission is not only likely but assured. WHO also believes those at greatest risk are the elderly and especially those with underlying chronic health conditions. Unlike influenza for which there is a vaccination to limit community transmission and anti-virals to aid those afflicted, we have neither for COVID 19. A vaccination to limit the spread is twelve to eighteen months away largely due to the requisite safety studies and scaling the manufacturing processes. As for an anti-viral to limit the duration of the illness? Who knows.

Again: Is our decision to self-quarantine an overreaction?

I have never thought of myself as “elderly,” but here I am on the eve of my 70^th birthday. I’m a gym rat. I always have been. I do not suffer hypertension, high cholesterol, or diabetes. I take no medication except for a daily multivitamin and vitamin C. However, I was recently diagnosed with prostate cancer. The high PSA score at my annual physical resulted in an MRI followed by an assay of my prostate in an in-hospital procedure. I’m still awaiting the results. My otherwise good health notwithstanding, I am at risk until: (a) the recent tests prove I don’t have cancer, or (b) following a recommended course of therapeutic treatment, I am in remission.

With COVID 19, I can’t count on my fellow Las Vegans to have taken the preventative vaccine. I can’t count on the sick to even recognize they are, or to understand their illness is COVID 19 rather than a bad cold or the flu. Today, trying to get tested means more likely than not those afflicted will not know, probably never know. And without widespread testing and follow-up analysis of the testing data, WHO’s best information available today suggests people like me self-quarantine.

Still, am I overreacting?

Some believe COVID 19 is not markedly different from the flu. We can disagree about transmissibility and mortality rates. But here’s a difference about which I remain convinced:

Public health authorities, health care providers, employers, and others exhort us to get our flu shots at the start of each flu season. Even after the flu arrives, we’re told it’s not too late to get a flu shot. Timely anti-virals reduce the severity and duration of the flu. The vaccinations lower transmissibility. Fewer get the flu and pass it on to others. The anti-virals help us recover quickly, avoid complications, and lower mortality rates.

COVID 19 has neither a vaccination nor an anti-viral.

There’s no vaccination to help you avoid COVID 19. There’s no anti-viral to diminish the effects and duration of COVID 19. It’s reasonable to believe—as public health officials do—that COVID 19 is more transmissible, has higher community transmission, and more harmful than the flu as a result.

If you believe COVID 19 is no worse than the flu, then that personal belief is the only thing standing between you and this pathogen, if you’re exposed.

This morning we ordered delivery of groceries from Walmart. I’m very familiar with this service having used it ten times in recent months. Usually, if I place an order early in the day, I have at least several choices of delivery times on that same day. Not so today. At 7:30 am, my first opportunity for delivery is tomorrow morning. This doesn’t include the out-of-stock items Walmart can’t deliver, like flour and yeast to make fresh bread or certain canned soups.

Before imposing a self-quarantine, we did a Costco run for some of the bulk basics we’d require for any period of isolation. You can probably guess what we purchased. I will only report we managed to snag the last of the stock of one item.

In five days, I’ll know more about my medical circumstances. Under the best of circumstances, our long-planned trip to Hawaii seems doubtful. The air tickets have long since been purchased, hotel accommodations paid, and even a rental car stands at the ready. This morning, Anthony Fauci of the National Institute of Allergy and Infection Diseases, stated a number of things. Among them, if you’re elderly avoid long trips, especially cruise ships (!), and if you have an underlying condition, avoid any long trip regardless of transport.

Last evening, we missed a performance at the Smith Center by the very talented Lucia Micarelli. We purchased tickets months ago. Self-quarantine.

Here’s the thing: While I have ample reason to worry over my own health, I also don’t want to play a role in infecting someone else. At the end of the day, I make decisions about me. Decisions I might regret, but they’re mine and I alone bear the consequences. If I could have avoided COVID 19 through self-quarantine but didn’t, and another person suffers as a result, that’s on me.

Just me.

BTW, I have a great idea for a story.

Copyright 2020, Howard D. Weiner