Postscript: I'm In Self-Quarantine for COVID 19

“This is no worse than the flu. All of this nonsense about social distancing and self-quarantine is just that: nonsense.”

I’m reading and hearing this a lot. And from very educated people no less.

We have what’s known as “Herd Immunity” for influenza but not COVID 19. Even though the strains of the flu prevalent each year may differ, survivors have antibodies from prior years which can limit the severity of the flu. No one in the U.S. has any immunity for COVID 19 this year. Next year will be a different matter.

Influenza vaccine was first successfully trial tested in 1938. Before that date there was no vaccine. Before 1938, there were no anti-viral medications a physician could subscribe to lessen the flu’s effects and possibly shorten the length of the illness. There was, however, Vicks Croup and Pneumonia Salve from the 1890’s. In 1919, Vicks added their Vaporub. And, finally, in 1931, Vicks added their cough drops. So, if you were brought low by the flu in the early-to-mid 1930’s, you could fight back with Vaporub and cough drops.

What could possibly go wrong?

According to contemporary studies of historical influenza mortality rates in the U.S., by the early 2000’s, the number of influenza mortalities was in a very low 0.44 (less than 1!) deaths per 100,000 of population. By contrast, the influenza death rate in the 1930’s ranged from 30 to 40 deaths per 100,000 of population. Remember, the flu vaccine arrived after 1938. Before 1938, we had Vicks’ products.

What’s changed for COVID 19?

Well, we still have the great products by Vicks. I have Vaporub, but I am out-of-stock on cough drops. Unfortunately, there is no vaccine to prevent COVID 19. So, if as some suggest, COVID 19 is just like the flu, then we might expect a pre-1938 outcome where COVID 19 is concerned, i.e., 30 to 40 deaths per 100,000 of population. 

My niece informs me that if I apply Vaporub to the soles of my feet and slip on my socks, any cough I have will be gone in the morning. I can’t find that advice on the label of my jar of Vaporub. But if anyone really wants to go all in retro for COVID 19, well, you know what to do.

Remember, COVID 19 is just like the flu.

Welcome to the 1930’s.

[See “Trends in recorded influenza mortality: United States 1900-2004.” American Journal of Public Health, July 2009, and in particular, see the Erratum published in August 2009.]

Copyright 2020, Howard D. Weiner

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